Prime Minister's Keynote Opening Speech at the Baltic Military Conference 2024
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me start by thanking all who have contributed to convening us in Vilnius today. And to thank you all who are eager to discuss ways to strengthen NATO in our security environment that has changed dramatically.
At times, these days more than often, it crosses my mind that we, Europeans, currently live in a quite paradoxical reality. It is time of war, but we continue living as if it were the time of peace. Today, 1/3 of NATO members still fall short of allocating at least 2% of their GDP for defence spending. The European defence industry still has to make significant strides in increasing its production. We still engage in prolonged discussions before sanctioning entities that sponsor aggressor’s war machine. We still are hesitant to provide Ukraine with all the weapons it needs to end this bloody war.
Even our words falsify the reality we are facing. “Conflict in Ukraine”, “two sides of the conflict” or “let’s not provoke Russia” are still present in some of our debates, as if Putin needs a provocation for his aggressive imperial ambitions. Far too often, we create parallel reality that prevents us from addressing the problems heads-on. Far too often, we draw red lines for ourselves, allowing the aggressor to know our next move and prepare, retain the initiative, and continue its aggression.
European continent might fall into a permanent cycle of wars and frozen conflicts, if we are to think that Russia’s war against Ukraine somehow will end itself. Or that the war might end because Russia would voluntarily sign an agreement. We know from our tragic experience, so as Ukraine does, that whatever words are spoken, whatever agreements are signed, this aggressor won’t stop… until he is stopped.
While NATO has shown strong solidarity with Ukraine and taken considerable actions to strengthen the Alliance. But these actions are not sufficient. Today our will to achieve peace is still weaker than our old fears related to Russia.
In the time of war, we need a different mindset than the one that allowed a former KGB agent to start the biggest war in Europe since 1940s. We need a mindset which is not afraid of containing Russia, not afraid of Russia’s defeat.
Indeed, anyone, in their right mind, should want Peace. But only completely naïve and numb would expect that Peace will come on its own without anyone willing to fight for it. The first step towards viable peace is to increase substantially and urgently the support to Ukraine. The arsenal of democracy must be greater than the arsenal of tyranny. So far, it is not the case.
Europe’s freedom today depends on Ukrainians who are holding the line. It is our joint responsibility to give Ukraine tools to win. It is the least we can and must do.
Sustainable peace on our continent is possible only if NATO remains united and strong. While strengthening the European defence pillar, we must do everything possible to keep the transatlantic link ever stronger. Of course, there will always be differences between Europe and the US, as there are differences in every family. Yet, it would be unforgivably short sighted to allow any issue to weaken our unity, which is crucial for the Euro-Atlantic and global security and stability.
The US leadership and its presence in Europe and, in particular, in the eastern flank, is the most credible deterrent against Russia - 'the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security.'
Russia’s policies continue to be aggressive and threaten Allies. Russia increased its defence budget by 70 percent compared to the last year (+ 100 billion USD), which allows to restore its military capabilities much faster than expected. Russia’s integration with Belarus has advanced significantly. The implications of these actions and policies to our security must be regularly assessed with needed adjustments on our side to be made.
As we are preparing for the upcoming NATO summit in Washington, we shall focus our efforts on tangible political-military results. In the time of war, every NATO Summit must bring concrete deliverables that enhance the security for our people.
To be able to defend our freedom without war, we must continue to strengthen NATO’s deterrence and forward defence, and fully implement the decisions of the Vilnius Summit, including on regional defence plans and on rotational air defence model.
New defence plans must be fully resourced and executable, tested by live large-scale exercises, and adapted when needed. It is of key importance that Allies agreed to give more authority to SACEUR to react to crisis and threats as they may emerge.
Without larger investments in defence, all our plans, concerns, or declarations will be nothing but words on paper. At the Vilnius Summit, we agreed that 2% is the floor - all NATO members should be standing firmly on this floor and looking up for more.
Lithuania is doing its homework and understands well General Cavoli’s point that NATO Treaty’s Article 3 goes before Article 5. Currently, we plan to spend 2,77% of GDP on defence, and plan to reach approximately 3% in the coming years. Lithuania's defence budget has already grown 300% since 2014, twice in just recent three years. We are investing heavily into modernization of our armed forces. We are in fast-track mode of building a necessary infrastructure to host a German brigade by the end of 2027. And let me use this opportunity to thank Germany once more for its leadership in contributing to the security of Lithuania and the whole of our region.
Ladies and gentlemen,
No doubt that the success of Washington Summit will also be judged by the Alliance’s pledge to bring Ukraine closer to NATO. Even in the time of war on its territory, Ukraine is delivering on key democratic and security reforms, and is showing the progress on the interoperability with NATO. The Alliance must respond accordingly.
Ukraine needs NATO as much as NATO needs Ukraine. Ukraine’s eventual membership would greatly enhance Alliance’s military capabilities, as Ukrainian armed forces are capable fighting against full scale of Russia’s invasion. Ukraine can and should become a solid defence pillar of NATO’s Eastern Flank. We should bring Ukraine closer - being frozen on the steps made in Vilnius should not be an option.
Finally, let me stress the importance of strengthening our partnership with the Indo-Pacific region. We are being watched by other revisionist powers across the world, who are already exploiting our indecisiveness. Working together with like-minded partners that share our democratic values is of crucial importance in preserving the rules-based international order. Democracies should unite their resources. Facing immense security challenges, rising and more cooperative dictatorships, there can’t be decisions that are too bold or too ‘escalatory’. Indeed, there can only be insufficient and weak decisions.
Ladies and gentlemen,
The outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine will shape not only Euro-Atlantic but also global security order. Democracies will not be safe in a world where a country with imperialist ambitions threatens its neighbours; where massive atrocities of war go unpunished; where the Russian world - russkij mir - continues or freezes on its own terms the genocidal war.
Formula for victory against the aggressor is rather clear: peace through strength. If we mobilize our efforts and start believing in the victory, we can ensure that peace in Europe will finally prevail. Just one simple illustration: the combined Nordic Baltic GDP is higher than that of Russia. It’s only NB8, not NATO32, nor EU 27 or G7 economic and political power combined.
Democracies may be slow to change their policies in the beginning, but they have a unique ability to learn from mistakes, adapt and reinvent themselves on the go.
I am sure that we are all looking forward to NATO Summit in Washington as an important milestone which would further project strength as the most efficient way of achieving durable peace.
Thank you.